BP energy outlook 2030

28 07 2012

According to BP 2012 report,

The growth of global energy consumption is increasingly being met by non-fossil fuels. Renewables, nuclear and hydro together account for 34% of the growth; this aggregate non-fossil contribution is, for the first time, larger than the contribution of any single fossil fuel. Renewables on their own contribute more to world energy growth than oil. The largest single fuel contribution comes from gas, which meets 31% of the projected growth in global energy.

Renewables are generally more costly than other energy sources,
although in some cases they are competitive already (e.g. Brazilian
biofuels, US onshore wind in the best locations). Policy support is
assumed to remain in place to help the industry deploy new
technologies and drive down costs. A key constraint on the pace of
renewables penetration is the willingness and ability to meet the
rapidly expanding cost of policy support as renewables scale up.
By 2030 renewables supply 11% of world electricity. The EU leads the
way, with 26% of power coming from renewables by 2030. The rest of
the OECD follows with a lag, and then the non-OECD also starts
ramping up the share of renewables in power.
Renewables face a tougher challenge penetrating the transport fuels
market. By 2030, 7% of world transport fuels come from renewable
sources. Brazil has the highest penetration of biofuels (21% in 2010,
rising to 39% by 2030), while the US leads the OECD in incentivising
biofuels (4% in 2010 to 15% by 2030).

see the report: http://www.bp.com/sectiongenericarticle800.do?categoryId=9037134&contentId=7068677

 


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